FairValue

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Lionel

Carole

LBFrance · Kayserispor

№ 11530Emerging €180k +0.11

Player dossierSüper Lig

LionelCarole

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Kayserispor
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
France
Age
35
Height
180 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Carole at €200k. Model A, which never saw Carole during training, estimates €180k: the market value is 11% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.11. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €222k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.11A €180k▼ −0.11B €222k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
56
Minutes
4,471
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
52/56
Min / app
80
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Carole…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €200k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €200kModel A €180k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Lionel Carole's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 76th, Starts 78th, Minutes, last 365 days 64th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals17thAssists76thMinutes78thStarts64thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

93% this player83% defender median78th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€600k
Oct 2010
Peak
€3.5M
Jan 2017
Model target
€200k
May 2026
Valuations
38
8 club changes
May 2026€200kKayserisporValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €200k, Kayserispor. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2010-10-24€600kFC Nantes
2011-06-15€600kSL Benfica
2011-12-25€600kCS Sedan-Ardennes
2012-06-01€600kCS Sedan-Ardennes
2012-11-10€900kSL Benfica B
2014-01-13€1MESTAC Troyes
2014-11-20€1MESTAC Troyes
2015-06-06€1.5MESTAC Troyes
2016-01-18€1.5MGalatasaray
2016-07-15€2MGalatasaray
2017-01-10€3.5MGalatasaray
2017-06-09€3.3MGalatasaray
2018-01-01€3MSevilla FC
2018-05-30€3MSevilla FC
2018-12-17€3MRC Strasbourg Alsace
2019-06-03€3MRC Strasbourg Alsace
2019-12-19€2.5MRC Strasbourg Alsace
2020-04-08€2MRC Strasbourg Alsace
2020-10-15€2MRC Strasbourg Alsace
2021-06-04€2MRC Strasbourg Alsace
2021-10-12€2MKayserispor
2022-01-04€1.8MKayserispor
2022-03-30€2MKayserispor
2022-06-01€2MKayserispor
2022-10-27€1.7MKayserispor
2023-03-14€1.5MKayserispor
2023-06-08€1.1MKayserispor
2023-09-27€1MKayserispor
2023-12-21€850kKayserispor
2024-03-15€650kKayserispor
2024-05-31€550kKayserispor
2024-10-04€550kKayserispor
2024-12-23€500kKayserispor
2025-03-20€400kKayserispor
2025-06-18€325kKayserispor
2025-10-01€300kKayserispor
2025-12-17€300kKayserispor
2026-05-21€200kKayserispor

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.105

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 6% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€200kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 5% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€200kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Carole appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).