IvanPakholyuk

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club: Kolos Kovalivka
League: Premier Liha
Nationality: Ukraine
Age: 22
Height: 184 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Pakholyuk at €1M. Model A, which never saw Pakholyuk during training, estimates €1.3M: the market value is 26% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.35. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 53
Minutes: 4,770
Started: 53/53
Min / app: 90
Cards: 5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Pakholyuk…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

4,770 this player2,790 goalkeeper median74th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,210

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €100k; Sept 2024
Peak: €1M; Dec 2025
Model target: €1M; Jun 2026
Valuations: 6; 0 club changes

Jun 2026€1MKolos KovalivkaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1M, Kolos Kovalivka. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2024-09-12	€100k	Kolos Kovalivka
2024-12-17	€400k	Kolos Kovalivka
2025-06-10	€600k	Kolos Kovalivka
2025-09-10	€800k	Kolos Kovalivka
2025-12-18	€1M	Kolos Kovalivka
2026-06-02	€1M	Kolos Kovalivka

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: −0.299

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 77% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

See them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 48% of the 485 goalkeepers.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Pakholyuk appears

TerminalPremier Liha in the Player Explorer
TerminalPremier Liha on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).