Isaac

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club: Hellas Verona
League: Serie A
Nationality: Brazil
Age: 22
Height: 185 cm
Foot: Both
Valued: 29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Isaac at €700k. Model A, which never saw Isaac during training, estimates €3.2M: the market value is 78% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×4.50. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 31
Minutes: 1,336
Goals: 3
Assists: 1
Started: 16/31
Min / app: 43
Cards: 3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Isaac…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €700k

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

52% this player59% attacker median37th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €300k; Jul 2023
Peak: €700k; May 2025
Model target: €700k; May 2026
Valuations: 8; 3 club changes

May 2026€700kHellas VeronaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €700k, Hellas Verona. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2023-07-25	€300k	Clube Atlético Mineiro
2023-12-11	€500k	Clube Atlético Mineiro
2024-03-28	€500k	Clube Atlético Mineiro
2024-06-17	€500k	Clube Atlético Mineiro
2024-12-19	€600k	CD Nacional
2025-05-30	€700k	CD Nacional
2025-12-10	€700k	Clube Atlético Mineiro
2026-05-29	€700k	Hellas Verona

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: −1.505

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 3% of the 507 Serie A players.

See them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 22% of the 1,583 attackers.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Isaac appears

TerminalSerie A in the Player Explorer
TerminalSerie A on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).