FairValue

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Gonçalo

Paciência

CFPortugal · CD Santa Clara

№ 181547Emerging €440k +0.47

Player dossierLiga Portugal

GonçaloPaciência

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
CD Santa Clara
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Portugal
Age
31
Height
184 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Paciência at €700k. Model A, which never saw Paciência during training, estimates €440k: the market value is 59% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.59. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €660k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.47A €440k▲ +0.06B €660k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
12
Minutes
499
Goals
3
Assists
0
Started
6/12
Min / app
42
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Paciência…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €700k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €700kModel A €440k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Gonçalo Paciência's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 91st, Assists per 90 6th, Minutes, two years 2nd, Starts 35th, Minutes, last 365 days 14th, European club minutes 28th91stGoals6thAssists2ndMinutes35thStarts14thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.54 this player0.26 attacker median91st percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Feb 2014
Peak
€15M
Dec 2019
Model target
€700k
May 2026
Valuations
30
13 club changes
May 2026€700kCD Santa ClaraValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €700k, CD Santa Clara. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-02-20€200kFC Porto B
2015-07-01€1MFC Porto B
2016-02-24€1.5MAcadémica Coimbra
2016-08-22€1.5MFC Porto B
2016-12-21€1MOlympiacos Piraeus
2017-06-26€800kRio Ave FC
2018-02-07€2MFC Porto
2018-06-13€3MFC Porto
2018-12-18€3MEintracht Frankfurt
2019-06-05€6MEintracht Frankfurt
2019-10-02€9MEintracht Frankfurt
2019-12-17€15MEintracht Frankfurt
2020-04-08€12MEintracht Frankfurt
2020-09-16€10MFC Schalke 04
2020-11-26€8MFC Schalke 04
2021-02-10€7.5MFC Schalke 04
2021-06-09€5MFC Schalke 04
2021-12-22€5MEintracht Frankfurt
2022-03-24€3.5MEintracht Frankfurt
2022-06-09€3MEintracht Frankfurt
2022-11-07€3MCelta de Vigo
2023-03-23€2.5MCelta de Vigo
2023-06-13€2MCelta de Vigo
2023-12-14€1.7MVfL Bochum
2024-05-29€1.5MVfL Bochum
2024-12-10€1.2MSanfrecce Hiroshima
2025-03-28€1.4MSport Club do Recife
2025-06-06€1MSport Club do Recife
2025-12-10€700kSport Club do Recife
2026-05-28€700kCD Santa Clara

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.465

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 33% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 22% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Paciência appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).