MariusCourcoul

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club: Angers SCO
League: Ligue 1
Nationality: France
Age: 19
Height: 182 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Courcoul at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Courcoul during training, estimates €1.6M: the market value is 52% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.52. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €678k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 26
Minutes: 668
Goals: 0
Assists: 0
Started: 6/26
Min / app: 26
Cards: 0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Courcoul…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% midfielder median30th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €200k; Aug 2023
Peak: €2.5M; Mar 2026
Model target: €2.5M; Jun 2026
Valuations: 8; 1 club change

Jun 2026€2.5MAngers SCOValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €2.5M, Angers SCO. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2023-08-24	€200k	Angers SCO B
2023-12-13	€150k	Angers SCO B
2024-06-11	€50k	Angers SCO B
2025-06-03	€300k	Angers SCO
2025-10-10	€700k	Angers SCO
2025-12-15	€700k	Angers SCO
2026-03-27	€2.5M	Angers SCO
2026-06-01	€2.5M	Angers SCO

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +0.416

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 24% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

See them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 51% of the 1,687 midfielders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Courcoul appears

TerminalLigue 1 in the Player Explorer
TerminalLigue 1 on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).