FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Arthur

Avom

CMCameroon · FC Lorient

№ 1074628Elite €9.2M +0.77

Player dossierLigue 1

ArthurAvom

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
FC Lorient
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
Cameroon
Age
21
Height
173 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Avom at €20M. Model A, which never saw Avom during training, estimates €9.2M: the market value is 117% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.17. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.77A €9.2M▲ +1.45B €4.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
31
Minutes
2,115
Goals
2
Assists
1
Started
22/31
Min / app
68
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Avom…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €20M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €20MModel A €9.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Arthur Avom's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 50th, Assists per 90 25th, Minutes, two years 40th, Starts 54th, Minutes, last 365 days 68th, European club minutes 30th50thGoals25thAssists40thMinutes54thStarts68thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,115 this player1,541 midfielder median68th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Oct 2024
Peak
€20M
Jun 2026
Model target
€20M
Jun 2026
Valuations
8
0 club changes
Jun 2026€20MFC LorientValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €20M, FC Lorient. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2024-10-03€100kFC Lorient
2024-12-04€800kFC Lorient
2025-03-12€2MFC Lorient
2025-06-02€5MFC Lorient
2025-10-10€7MFC Lorient
2025-12-15€9MFC Lorient
2026-03-27€15MFC Lorient
2026-06-01€20MFC Lorient

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.775

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 85% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 88% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Avom appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).