FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
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  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
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  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Andriy

Lomnytskyi

CBUkraine · Obolon Kyiv

№ 1061435Emerging €253k −0.23

Player dossierPremier Liha

AndriyLomnytskyi

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Obolon Kyiv
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
20
Height
196 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Lomnytskyi at €200k. Model A, which never saw Lomnytskyi during training, estimates €253k: the market value is 21% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.26. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €845k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.23A €253k▼ −1.44B €845k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
14
Minutes
556
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
7/14
Min / app
40
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lomnytskyi…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €200k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €200kModel A €253k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Andriy Lomnytskyi's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 2nd, Starts 8th, Minutes, last 365 days 12th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals17thAssists2ndMinutes8thStarts12thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% defender median30th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€10k
Jun 2023
Peak
€200k
Dec 2025
Model target
€200k
Jun 2026
Valuations
5
2 club changes
Jun 2026€200kObolon KyivValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €200k, Obolon Kyiv. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-06-21€10kKarpaty-2 Lviv
2023-12-11€10kKarpaty-2 Lviv
2025-06-10€50kObolon Kyiv U19
2025-12-18€200kObolon Kyiv
2026-06-02€200kObolon Kyiv

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.234

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 10% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€200kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 5% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€200kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Lomnytskyi appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).