MichelMboula

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club: FC Metz
League: Ligue 1
Nationality: Gabon
Age: 23
Height: 185 cm
Foot: Left
Valued: 1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Mboula at €900k. Model A, which never saw Mboula during training, estimates €1.7M: the market value is 47% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.90. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 14
Minutes: 746
Goals: 0
Assists: 0
Started: 10/14
Min / app: 53
Cards: 2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mboula…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €900k

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% defender median30th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €50k; Nov 2022
Peak: €1.2M; Jun 2025
Model target: €900k; Jun 2026
Valuations: 11; 2 club changes

Jun 2026€900kFC MetzValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €900k, FC Metz. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2022-11-05	€50k	Dinamo-Auto Tiraspol (-2024)
2023-10-20	€50k	Sanliurfaspor
2023-12-29	€175k	Sanliurfaspor
2024-03-26	€300k	Sanliurfaspor
2024-06-13	€250k	Sanliurfaspor
2024-10-16	€325k	Sanliurfaspor
2025-01-09	€325k	Sanliurfaspor
2025-03-12	€600k	FC Metz
2025-06-02	€1.2M	FC Metz
2025-12-15	€1M	FC Metz
2026-06-01	€900k	FC Metz

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: −0.640

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 8% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

See them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 33% of the 2,065 defenders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Mboula appears

TerminalLigue 1 in the Player Explorer
TerminalLigue 1 on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).