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Danny

Wilson

CBScotland · Livingston FC

№ 103819Emerging €69k +0.37

Player dossierPremiership

DannyWilson

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Livingston FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Scotland
Age
34
Height
187 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Wilson at €100k. Model A, which never saw Wilson during training, estimates €69k: the market value is 45% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.45. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €156k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.37A €69k▼ −0.44B €156k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
28
Minutes
2,372
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
27/28
Min / app
85
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Wilson…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €100k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €100kModel A €69k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Danny Wilson's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 55th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 41st, Starts 88th, Minutes, last 365 days 73rd, European club minutes 30th55thGoals17thAssists41stMinutes88thStarts73rdRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

96% this player83% defender median88th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Feb 2009
Peak
€2M
Aug 2011
Model target
€100k
May 2026
Valuations
32
7 club changes
May 2026€100kLivingston FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €100k, Livingston FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2009-02-25€250kRangers FC U20
2009-11-11€500kRangers FC
2010-03-04€1MRangers FC
2010-08-13€1.5MLiverpool FC
2011-02-01€1.5MLiverpool FC
2011-08-08€2MLiverpool FC
2012-06-24€1.5MLiverpool FC
2013-07-02€1.5MHeart of Midlothian FC
2013-10-08€1MHeart of Midlothian FC
2014-02-13€750kHeart of Midlothian FC
2014-10-06€500kHeart of Midlothian FC
2015-11-16€500kRangers FC
2017-02-14€500kRangers FC
2018-01-18€700kRangers FC
2018-05-02€700kColorado Rapids
2018-12-15€700kColorado Rapids
2019-05-27€575kColorado Rapids
2019-11-30€600kColorado Rapids
2020-04-08€475kColorado Rapids
2020-08-26€550kColorado Rapids
2020-12-18€500kColorado Rapids
2021-07-09€700kColorado Rapids
2021-11-09€800kColorado Rapids
2022-08-18€800kColorado Rapids
2022-11-08€800kColorado Rapids
2023-08-22€800kColorado Rapids
2023-12-18€800kColorado Rapids
2024-06-21€400kQueen's Park FC
2024-12-03€200kLivingston FC
2025-06-17€150kLivingston FC
2025-12-10€125kLivingston FC
2026-05-20€100kLivingston FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.369

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 7% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€100kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 1% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€100kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Wilson appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).