FairValue

Checking model

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Sotiris

Kontouris

CMGreece · Panathinaikos

№ 1031590Emerging €1.5M +0.02

Player dossierSuper League

SotirisKontouris

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Panathinaikos
League
Super League
Nationality
Greece
Age
21
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Kontouris at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Kontouris during training, estimates €1.5M: the market value is 2% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.02. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.02A €1.5M▼ −0.05B €1.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
31
Minutes
1,636
Goals
2
Assists
0
Started
20/31
Min / app
53
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kontouris…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.5MModel A €1.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Sotiris Kontouris's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 59th, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 28th, Starts 41st, Minutes, last 365 days 40th, European club minutes 30th59thGoals8thAssists28thMinutes41stStarts40thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.11 this player0.08 midfielder median59th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Sept 2023
Peak
€1.5M
Jun 2026
Model target
€1.5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
11
1 club change
Jun 2026€1.5MPanathinaikosValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.5M, Panathinaikos. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-09-21€50kPanetolikos
2023-12-20€75kPanetolikos
2024-03-06€100kPanetolikos
2024-05-30€100kPanetolikos
2024-09-26€125kPanetolikos
2024-12-18€175kPanetolikos
2025-03-14€200kPanetolikos
2025-05-23€200kPanetolikos
2025-12-12€400kPanetolikos
2026-03-06€800kPanathinaikos
2026-06-04€1.5MPanathinaikos

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.020

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 73% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 39% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kontouris appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).