Junior
Mwanga
DMFrance · RC Strasbourg Alsace
Player dossierLigue 1
JuniorMwanga
DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- RC Strasbourg Alsace
- League
- Ligue 1
- Nationality
- France
- Age
- 23
- Height
- 184 cm
- Foot
- Both
- Valued
- 1 Jun 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Mwanga at €6M. Model A, which never saw Mwanga during training, estimates €14.8M: the market value is 59% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×2.46. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.5M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 41
- Minutes
- 3,067
- Goals
- 2
- Assists
- 3
- Started
- 35/41
- Min / app
- 75
- Cards
- 4Y 1R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mwanga…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €6M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
85% this player69% midfielder median79th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €200k
- May 2022
- Peak
- €7M
- Mar 2024
- Model target
- €6M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 13
- 5 club changes
Jun 2026: €6M, RC Strasbourg Alsace. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-05-30 | €200k | FC Girondins Bordeaux B |
| 2022-10-28 | €1M | FC Girondins Bordeaux |
| 2023-04-06 | €2.5M | FC Girondins Bordeaux |
| 2023-06-16 | €4M | FC Girondins Bordeaux |
| 2023-10-16 | €6M | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 2023-12-18 | €6M | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 2024-03-19 | €7M | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 2024-06-03 | €7M | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 2024-12-10 | €6M | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 2025-06-03 | €6M | Le Havre AC |
| 2025-12-15 | €7M | FC Nantes |
| 2026-03-27 | €6M | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 2026-06-01 | €6M | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.902
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Ligue 1423 players · median €5M
Valued above 50% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 69% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Mwanga appears
- TerminalLigue 1 in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLigue 1 on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- RulliGKOlympique Marseille · Ligue 1€6M
- FrankowskiRBStade Rennais FC · Ligue 1€6M
- MakengoAMFC Lorient · Ligue 1€6M
- NamasoLWAJ Auxerre · Ligue 1€6M
- CasemiroDMManchester United · midfielders€6M
- SabitzerCMBorussia Dortmund · midfielders€6M
- AndrichDMBayer 04 Leverkusen · midfielders€6M
- PašalićCMAtalanta BC · midfielders€6M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).