FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Mats

Rots

LBNetherlands · FC Twente Enschede

№ 983677Elite €9M +0.29

Player dossierEredivisie

MatsRots

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
FC Twente Enschede
League
Eredivisie
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
20
Height
190 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Rots at €12M. Model A, which never saw Rots during training, estimates €9M: the market value is 34% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.34. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €14.3M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.29A €9M▼ −0.18B €14.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
56
Minutes
4,807
Goals
7
Assists
5
Started
54/56
Min / app
86
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Rots…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €12M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €12MModel A €9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Mats Rots's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 93rd, Assists per 90 75th, Minutes, two years 81st, Starts 88th, Minutes, last 365 days 93rd, European club minutes 61st93rdGoals75thAssists81stMinutes88thStarts93rdRecent61stEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.13 this player0.03 defender median93rd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Oct 2023
Peak
€12M
May 2026
Model target
€12M
May 2026
Valuations
10
3 club changes
May 2026€12MFC Twente EnschedeValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €12M, FC Twente Enschede. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-10-13€150kFC Twente Enschede U21
2023-12-15€250kFC Twente Enschede U21
2024-05-31€250kFC Twente Enschede U21
2024-12-17€250kFC Twente Enschede
2025-03-28€800kHeracles Almelo
2025-05-28€1MHeracles Almelo
2025-10-02€3MFC Twente Enschede
2025-12-02€5MFC Twente Enschede
2026-03-11€10MFC Twente Enschede
2026-05-28€12MFC Twente Enschede

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.290

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Eredivisie425 players · median €1M

Valued above 93% of the 425 Eredivisie players.

€75k€500k€3M€20M€12MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 84% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€12MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Rots appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).