FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Oumar

Ngom

DMMauritania · US Lecce

№ 980575Established €4M −0.29

Player dossierSerie A

OumarNgom

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
US Lecce
League
Serie A
Nationality
Mauritania
Age
22
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ngom at €3M. Model A, which never saw Ngom during training, estimates €4M: the market value is 25% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.34. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.8M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.29A €4M▲ +0.06B €2.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
26
Minutes
1,672
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
19/26
Min / app
64
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ngom…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Oumar Ngom's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 30th, Minutes, two years 29th, Starts 57th, Minutes, last 365 days 54th, European club minutes 30th10thGoals30thAssists29thMinutes57thStarts54thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

73% this player69% midfielder median57th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jun 2022
Peak
€3M
May 2026
Model target
€3M
May 2026
Valuations
12
3 club changes
May 2026€3MUS LecceValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €3M, US Lecce. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-06-02€50kFC Chamois Niort B
2022-10-28€50kFC Chamois Niort B
2023-06-16€100kFC Chamois Niort B
2023-12-13€150kPau FC
2024-06-11€150kPau FC
2024-10-03€250kPau FC
2024-12-04€350kPau FC
2025-03-12€400kPau FC
2025-06-02€600kPau FC
2025-12-18€600kCF Estrela Amadora
2026-03-24€2.5MUS Lecce
2026-05-29€3MUS Lecce

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.291

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 29% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 56% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ngom appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).