FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Portrait of Ousmane Diomande

Ousmane

Diomande

CBCote d'Ivoire · Sporting CP

№ 974982World Class €25M +0.52

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLiga Portugal

OusmaneDiomande

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Sporting CP
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Cote d'Ivoire
Age
22
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Diomande at €42M. Model A, which never saw Diomande during training, estimates €25M: the market value is 68% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.68. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €18.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.52A €25M▲ +0.84B €18.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
70
Minutes
5,469
Goals
3
Assists
2
Started
63/70
Min / app
78
Cards
15Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Diomande…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €42M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €42MModel A €25M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Ousmane Diomande's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 63rd, Assists per 90 46th, Minutes, two years 88th, Starts 69th, Minutes, last 365 days 61st, European club minutes 90th63rdGoals46thAssists88thMinutes69thStarts61stRecent90thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

25% this player0% defender median90th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
Dec 2022
Peak
€45M
May 2025
Model target
€42M
May 2026
Valuations
10
1 club change
May 2026€42MSporting CPValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €42M, Sporting CP. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-12-28€400kCD Mafra
2023-03-02€4MSporting CP
2023-06-16€10MSporting CP
2023-09-29€25MSporting CP
2023-12-27€40MSporting CP
2024-06-06€40MSporting CP
2024-12-19€40MSporting CP
2025-05-30€45MSporting CP
2025-12-18€45MSporting CP
2026-05-28€42MSporting CP

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.519

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Joint 4th highest observed value among 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€42MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 98% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€42MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Diomande appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).