Miguel
Chaiwa
DMZambia · Hibernian FC
Player dossierPremiership
MiguelChaiwa
DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Hibernian FC
- League
- Premiership
- Nationality
- Zambia
- Age
- 21
- Height
- 179 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 20 May 2026
PremiershipReading the valuation
The market values Chaiwa at €3M. Model A, which never saw Chaiwa during training, estimates €1.4M: the market value is 120% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×2.20. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 26
- Minutes
- 1,604
- Goals
- 2
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 17/26
- Min / app
- 62
- Cards
- 8Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Chaiwa…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
6% this player0% midfielder median67th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €25k
- Dec 2022
- Peak
- €3M
- May 2026
- Model target
- €3M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 11
- 3 club changes
May 2026: €3M, Hibernian FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-29 | €25k | BSC Young Boys |
| 2023-03-28 | €100k | BSC Young Boys |
| 2023-06-07 | €600k | BSC Young Boys |
| 2023-10-19 | €1M | BSC Young Boys |
| 2023-12-21 | €1M | BSC Young Boys |
| 2024-05-31 | €800k | FC Schaffhausen |
| 2024-09-27 | €1.5M | BSC Young Boys |
| 2024-12-23 | €1.2M | BSC Young Boys |
| 2025-06-10 | €1.2M | BSC Young Boys |
| 2025-12-10 | €1.2M | Hibernian FC |
| 2026-05-20 | €3M | Hibernian FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.789
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premiership311 players · median €400k
Valued above 89% of the 311 Premiership players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 56% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Chaiwa appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- ShanklandCFHeart of Midlothian FC · Premiership€3M
- IheanachoCFCeltic FC · Premiership€3M
- AdamuCFCeltic FC · Premiership€3M
- BalikwishaLWCeltic FC · Premiership€3M
- MkhitaryanCMInter Milan · midfielders€3M
- GötzeAMEintracht Frankfurt · midfielders€3M
- AndréDMLOSC Lille · midfielders€3M
- ArnoldCMVfL Wolfsburg · midfielders€3M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).