FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Marcus

McCoy

LBDenmark · Odense Boldklub

№ 950320Emerging €547k +0.25

Player dossierSuperliga

MarcusMcCoy

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Odense Boldklub
League
Superliga
Nationality
Denmark
Age
20
Height
187 cm
Foot
Both
Valued
25 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values McCoy at €700k. Model A, which never saw McCoy during training, estimates €547k: the market value is 28% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.28. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.25A €547k▼ −0.41B €1.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
24
Minutes
1,089
Goals
0
Assists
2
Started
8/24
Min / app
45
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for McCoy…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €700k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €700kModel A €547k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Marcus McCoy's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 91st, Minutes, two years 14th, Starts 1st, Minutes, last 365 days 31st, European club minutes 30th18thGoals91stAssists14thMinutes1stStarts31stRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.17 this player0.04 defender median91st percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Jun 2023
Peak
€700k
May 2026
Model target
€700k
May 2026
Valuations
6
1 club change
May 2026€700kOdense BoldklubValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €700k, Odense Boldklub. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-06-09€150kOdense Boldklub U19
2024-06-10€100kOdense Boldklub U19
2024-12-09€100kOdense Boldklub
2025-06-16€200kOdense Boldklub
2025-12-15€350kOdense Boldklub
2026-05-25€700kOdense Boldklub

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.247

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Superliga256 players · median €800k

Valued above 39% of the 256 Superliga players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 26% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Where McCoy appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).