FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Guilherme

Smith

LWBrazil · Union Saint-Gilloise

№ 949337Established €4.3M −0.08

Player dossierPro League

GuilhermeSmith

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Union Saint-Gilloise
League
Pro League
Nationality
Brazil
Age
22
Height
184 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Smith at €4M. Model A, which never saw Smith during training, estimates €4.3M: the market value is 7% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.08. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.08A €4.3M▲ +0.26B €3.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
28
Minutes
1,884
Goals
4
Assists
2
Started
22/28
Min / app
67
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Smith…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4MModel A €4.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Guilherme Smith's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 33rd, Assists per 90 30th, Minutes, two years 41st, Starts 81st, Minutes, last 365 days 70th, European club minutes 81st33rdGoals30thAssists41stMinutes81stStarts70thRecent81stEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

79% this player59% attacker median81st percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Mar 2024
Peak
€4M
Jun 2026
Model target
€4M
Jun 2026
Valuations
7
2 club changes
Jun 2026€4MUnion Saint-GilloiseValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €4M, Union Saint-Gilloise. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2024-03-18€100kZorya Lugansk U19
2024-06-06€100kZorya Lugansk U19
2024-11-11€150kKalju FC
2025-04-29€200kKalju FC
2025-12-10€200kUnion Saint-Gilloise
2026-03-13€2MUnion Saint-Gilloise
2026-06-04€4MUnion Saint-Gilloise

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.076

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 78% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 59% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Smith appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).