Alexander
Schwolow
GKGermany · Heart of Midlothian FC
Player dossierPremiership
AlexanderSchwolow
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- Heart of Midlothian FC
- League
- Premiership
- Nationality
- Germany
- Age
- 33
- Height
- 190 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 20 May 2026
PremiershipReading the valuation
The market values Schwolow at €450k. Model A, which never saw Schwolow during training, estimates €192k: the market value is 135% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×2.35. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €174k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 34
- Minutes
- 3,045
- Started
- 34/34
- Min / app
- 90
- Cards
- 0Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Schwolow…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €450k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
Minutes, last 365 days
Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.
2,505 this player1,560 goalkeeper median68th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Aug 2010
- Peak
- €9M
- Jun 2019
- Model target
- €450k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 40
- 7 club changes
May 2026: €450k, Heart of Midlothian FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2010-08-02 | €50k | SC Freiburg II |
| 2010-10-01 | €25k | SC Freiburg II |
| 2011-01-10 | €25k | SC Freiburg II |
| 2011-04-18 | €100k | SC Freiburg II |
| 2011-05-26 | €150k | SC Freiburg II |
| 2011-12-29 | €175k | SC Freiburg II |
| 2012-01-23 | €200k | SC Freiburg |
| 2012-06-29 | €200k | SC Freiburg |
| 2013-01-13 | €250k | SC Freiburg |
| 2013-06-30 | €250k | SC Freiburg |
| 2014-11-06 | €250k | Arminia Bielefeld |
| 2015-03-07 | €400k | Arminia Bielefeld |
| 2015-07-01 | €600k | SC Freiburg |
| 2015-10-22 | €900k | SC Freiburg |
| 2016-02-11 | €1M | SC Freiburg |
| 2016-07-22 | €1.5M | SC Freiburg |
| 2017-02-07 | €2M | SC Freiburg |
| 2017-06-19 | €4M | SC Freiburg |
| 2017-12-28 | €4M | SC Freiburg |
| 2018-04-04 | €6M | SC Freiburg |
| 2018-06-05 | €6M | SC Freiburg |
| 2018-12-18 | €7M | SC Freiburg |
| 2019-06-05 | €9M | SC Freiburg |
| 2019-12-17 | €9M | SC Freiburg |
| 2020-04-08 | €7M | SC Freiburg |
| 2020-09-16 | €8M | Hertha BSC |
| 2021-02-10 | €6M | Hertha BSC |
| 2021-06-09 | €5M | Hertha BSC |
| 2021-12-22 | €5M | Hertha BSC |
| 2022-03-24 | €3.5M | Hertha BSC |
| 2022-06-09 | €3M | Hertha BSC |
| 2022-11-09 | €1.5M | FC Schalke 04 |
| 2023-03-29 | €900k | FC Schalke 04 |
| 2023-06-22 | €900k | FC Schalke 04 |
| 2023-12-14 | €900k | 1.FC Union Berlin |
| 2024-05-29 | €700k | 1.FC Union Berlin |
| 2024-12-20 | €700k | 1.FC Union Berlin |
| 2025-06-05 | €500k | 1.FC Union Berlin |
| 2025-12-10 | €450k | Heart of Midlothian FC |
| 2026-05-20 | €450k | Heart of Midlothian FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.853
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premiership311 players · median €400k
Valued above 54% of the 311 Premiership players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 26% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Schwolow appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- SallingerGKHibernian FC · Premiership€450k
- StrainRBDundee United FC · Premiership€450k
- CongreveRWDundee FC · Premiership€450k
- TavernierRBRangers FC · Premiership€500k
- KotsarisGKPanathinaikos · goalkeepers€450k
- VerripsGKFCV Dender EH · goalkeepers€450k
- GünokGKFenerbahce · goalkeepers€500k
- SteeleGKBrighton & Hove Albion · goalkeepers€500k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).