FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Michael

Verrips

GKNetherlands · FCV Dender EH

№ 288259Emerging €468k −0.04

Player dossierPro League

MichaelVerrips

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
FCV Dender EH
League
Pro League
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
29
Height
196 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Verrips at €450k. Model A, which never saw Verrips during training, estimates €468k: the market value is 4% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.04. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €970k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.04A €468k▼ −0.77B €970k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
37
Minutes
3,237
Started
37/37
Min / app
87
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Verrips…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €450k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €450kModel A €468k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Michael Verrips's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 60th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 35th, European club minutes 32nd60thMinutes62ndStarts35thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile

70%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Aug 2014
Peak
€1.5M
Jun 2019
Model target
€450k
Jun 2026
Valuations
26
10 club changes
Jun 2026€450kFCV Dender EHValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €450k, FCV Dender EH. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-08-15€25kFC Twente Enschede U21
2015-02-21€50kFC Twente Enschede U21
2016-07-15€50kSparta Rotterdam
2017-01-18€100kSparta Rotterdam
2017-06-07€100kSparta Rotterdam
2018-03-01€150kMVV Maastricht
2018-06-29€250kMVV Maastricht
2018-09-14€400kKV Mechelen
2019-01-18€900kKV Mechelen
2019-06-10€1.5MKV Mechelen
2019-12-10€1MSheffield United
2020-04-08€800kSheffield United
2020-10-13€800kSheffield United
2021-05-19€900kFC Emmen
2021-11-24€900kSheffield United
2022-06-08€800kFortuna Sittard
2022-11-11€800kFC Groningen
2023-06-23€600kFC Groningen
2024-01-08€400kFC Groningen
2024-03-18€600kFortuna Sittard
2024-05-31€650kFortuna Sittard
2024-10-02€750kFCV Dender EH
2024-12-11€800kFCV Dender EH
2025-06-12€800kFCV Dender EH
2025-12-10€600kFCV Dender EH
2026-06-04€450kFCV Dender EH

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.039

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 8% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€450kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 26% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€450kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Verrips appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).