FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Moses

Jarju

CBThe Gambia · Chornomorets Odesa

№ 936859Emerging €307k −0.20

Player dossierPremier Liha

MosesJarju

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Chornomorets Odesa
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
The Gambia
Age
22
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
18 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Jarju at €250k. Model A, which never saw Jarju during training, estimates €307k: the market value is 19% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.23. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €586k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.20A €307k▼ −0.85B €586k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
15
Minutes
1,087
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
13/15
Min / app
72
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Jarju…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €250k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €250kModel A €307k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Moses Jarju's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 81st, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 14th, Starts 60th, Minutes, last 365 days 17th, European club minutes 30th81stGoals17thAssists14thMinutes60thStarts17thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.08 this player0.03 defender median81st percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
May 2023
Peak
€250k
Jun 2025
Model target
€250k
Dec 2025
Valuations
5
2 club changes
Dec 2025€250kChornomorets OdesaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €250k, Chornomorets Odesa. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-05-17€100kFortune Football Club
2023-12-11€100kPolissya Zhytomyr
2024-12-17€150kChornomorets Odesa
2025-06-10€250kChornomorets Odesa
2025-12-18€250kChornomorets Odesa

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.205

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 17% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 7% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Jarju appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).