FairValue

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Aleksandr

Zotov

CMRussia · Rubin Kazan

№ 93177Emerging €214k −0.76

Player dossierPremier Liga

AleksandrZotov

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Rubin Kazan
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
35
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Zotov at €100k. Model A, which never saw Zotov during training, estimates €214k: the market value is 53% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.14. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €171k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.76A €214k▼ −0.54B €171k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
35
Minutes
1,787
Goals
2
Assists
1
Started
19/35
Min / app
51
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Zotov…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €100k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €100kModel A €214k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Aleksandr Zotov's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 56th, Assists per 90 29th, Minutes, two years 31st, Starts 27th, Minutes, last 365 days 6th, European club minutes 30th56thGoals29thAssists31stMinutes27thStarts6thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.10 this player0.08 midfielder median56th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Dec 2008
Peak
€1.5M
Oct 2017
Model target
€100k
May 2026
Valuations
37
10 club changes
May 2026€100kRubin KazanValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €100k, Rubin Kazan. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2008-12-18€200kSpartak Moskow II
2010-12-03€450kSpartak Moscow
2011-05-24€450kZhemchuzhina Sochi
2011-07-28€500kSpartak Moscow
2011-12-09€500kSpartak Moscow
2012-07-04€500kSpartak Moscow
2013-01-22€300kTom Tomsk
2013-06-08€400kTom Tomsk
2013-12-27€400kShinnik Yaroslavl
2014-06-29€450kShinnik Yaroslavl
2015-02-23€450kArsenal Tula
2015-06-18€500kArsenal Tula
2016-01-06€1MSpartak Moscow
2016-05-25€1MSpartak Moscow
2016-12-23€1MDinamo Moscow
2017-06-01€1MDinamo Moscow
2017-10-02€1.5MDinamo Moscow
2017-12-23€1.5MDinamo Moscow
2018-06-06€1MDinamo Moscow
2018-12-20€1MEnisey Krasnoyarsk
2019-06-14€1MEnisey Krasnoyarsk
2019-09-10€800kEnisey Krasnoyarsk
2019-12-23€600kEnisey Krasnoyarsk
2020-04-08€475kEnisey Krasnoyarsk
2020-06-29€475kEnisey Krasnoyarsk
2020-12-29€450kEnisey Krasnoyarsk
2021-05-24€450kEnisey Krasnoyarsk
2021-12-07€400kEnisey Krasnoyarsk
2022-05-30€350kEnisey Krasnoyarsk
2022-12-08€350kRubin Kazan
2023-06-19€350kRubin Kazan
2023-12-13€300kRubin Kazan
2024-06-04€300kRubin Kazan
2024-12-12€200kRubin Kazan
2025-06-04€150kRubin Kazan
2025-12-16€100kRubin Kazan
2026-05-26€100kRubin Kazan

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.761

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 0% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€100kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 0% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€100kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Zotov appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).