David
Simão
CMPortugal · FC Arouca
Player dossierLiga Portugal
DavidSimão
CMCentral MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- FC Arouca
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Portugal
- Age
- 35
- Height
- 183 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 18 Dec 2025
Reading the valuation
The market values Simão at €100k. Model A, which never saw Simão during training, estimates €188k: the market value is 47% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.88. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €213k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 55
- Minutes
- 4,022
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 4
- Started
- 50/55
- Min / app
- 73
- Cards
- 17Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Simão…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €100k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
91% this player69% midfielder median88th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €200k
- Jul 2010
- Peak
- €2.5M
- Apr 2013
- Model target
- €100k
- Dec 2025
- Valuations
- 33
- 12 club changes
Dec 2025: €100k, FC Arouca. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2010-07-14 | €200k | SL Benfica |
| 2011-02-04 | €900k | FC Paços de Ferreira |
| 2011-06-28 | €1.4M | FC Paços de Ferreira |
| 2012-02-02 | €1.5M | Académica Coimbra |
| 2012-07-02 | €2M | SL Benfica |
| 2013-04-03 | €2.5M | CS Marítimo |
| 2013-07-02 | €2.5M | FC Arouca |
| 2014-07-25 | €2.5M | FC Arouca |
| 2015-02-17 | €2.4M | FC Arouca |
| 2015-07-01 | €1.8M | FC Arouca |
| 2016-02-24 | €1.5M | FC Arouca |
| 2016-08-01 | €1.5M | CSKA-Sofia |
| 2017-01-28 | €1.6M | CSKA-Sofia |
| 2017-08-23 | €2M | CSKA-Sofia |
| 2018-02-07 | €1.5M | Boavista FC |
| 2018-06-13 | €1.5M | Boavista FC |
| 2019-01-11 | €1M | Boavista FC |
| 2019-06-10 | €1M | Royal Antwerp FC |
| 2019-09-23 | €800k | AEK Athens |
| 2019-12-18 | €600k | AEK Athens |
| 2020-04-08 | €475k | Hapoel Beer Sheva |
| 2020-07-07 | €300k | Hapoel Beer Sheva |
| 2021-01-28 | €300k | Moreirense FC |
| 2021-05-21 | €250k | Moreirense FC |
| 2022-03-10 | €250k | FC Arouca |
| 2022-05-31 | €250k | FC Arouca |
| 2022-11-01 | €250k | FC Arouca |
| 2023-06-16 | €250k | FC Arouca |
| 2023-12-27 | €250k | FC Arouca |
| 2024-06-06 | €200k | FC Arouca |
| 2024-12-19 | €200k | FC Arouca |
| 2025-05-30 | €100k | FC Arouca |
| 2025-12-18 | €100k | FC Arouca |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.631
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 2% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 0% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Simão appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- FonteCBCasa Pia AC · Liga Portugal€100k
- RibeiroGKCF Estrela Amadora · Liga Portugal€100k
- RochaCBCD Santa Clara · Liga Portugal€100k
- SantosCBAvs Futebol · Liga Portugal€100k
- IvanovAMRubin Kazan · midfielders€100k
- NeiraAMOFI Crete · midfielders€100k
- ChernenkoCMObolon Kyiv · midfielders€100k
- ErokhinAMZenit St. Petersburg · midfielders€100k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).