FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
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  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Hjalte

Bidstrup

RBDenmark · Viborg FF

№ 926988Emerging €1.9M −0.47

Player dossierSuperliga

HjalteBidstrup

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Viborg FF
League
Superliga
Nationality
Denmark
Age
20
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
25 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bidstrup at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Bidstrup during training, estimates €1.9M: the market value is 38% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.60. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.6M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.47A €1.9M▼ −0.30B €1.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
25
Minutes
1,487
Goals
1
Assists
2
Started
15/25
Min / app
59
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bidstrup…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.2MModel A €1.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Hjalte Bidstrup's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 70th, Assists per 90 82nd, Minutes, two years 23rd, Starts 15th, Minutes, last 365 days 43rd, European club minutes 30th70thGoals82ndAssists23rdMinutes15thStarts43rdRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.12 this player0.04 defender median82nd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€75k
Jun 2025
Peak
€1.2M
May 2026
Model target
€1.2M
May 2026
Valuations
3
0 club changes
May 2026€1.2MViborg FFValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.2M, Viborg FF. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2025-06-16€75kViborg FF
2025-12-15€750kViborg FF
2026-05-25€1.2MViborg FF

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.471

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Superliga256 players · median €800k

Valued above 61% of the 256 Superliga players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 39% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Bidstrup appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).