FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Oliver

Scarles

LBEngland · West Ham United

№ 922563Elite €11.6M −0.15

Player dossierPremier League

OliverScarles

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
West Ham United
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
20
Height
180 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Scarles at €10M. Model A, which never saw Scarles during training, estimates €11.6M: the market value is 14% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.16. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €940k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.15A €11.6M▲ +2.36B €940k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
33
Minutes
1,574
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
19/33
Min / app
48
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Scarles…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €11.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Oliver Scarles's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 62nd, Minutes, two years 24th, Starts 13th, Minutes, last 365 days 23rd, European club minutes 30th18thGoals62ndAssists24thMinutes13thStarts23rdRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.06 this player0.04 defender median62nd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Nov 2022
Peak
€10M
Mar 2026
Model target
€10M
Jun 2026
Valuations
8
2 club changes
Jun 2026€10MWest Ham UnitedValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €10M, West Ham United. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-11-03€200kWest Ham United U18
2023-12-19€400kWest Ham United U21
2024-12-16€400kWest Ham United U21
2025-03-18€4MWest Ham United
2025-05-30€8MWest Ham United
2025-12-09€8MWest Ham United
2026-03-09€10MWest Ham United
2026-06-03€10MWest Ham United

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.152

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 32% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 81% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Scarles appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).