Marley
Watkins
CFWales · Kilmarnock FC
Player dossierPremiership
MarleyWatkins
CFCentre-ForwardAttack
- Club
- Kilmarnock FC
- League
- Premiership
- Nationality
- Wales
- Age
- 35
- Height
- 178 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 20 May 2026
PremiershipReading the valuation
The market values Watkins at €25k. Model A, which never saw Watkins during training, estimates €82k: the market value is 69% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×3.27. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €217k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 43
- Minutes
- 2,578
- Goals
- 6
- Assists
- 2
- Started
- 28/43
- Min / app
- 60
- Cards
- 3Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Watkins…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €25k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
10% this player0% attacker median70th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €25k
- Apr 2010
- Peak
- €1M
- Feb 2017
- Model target
- €25k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 27
- 6 club changes
May 2026: €25k, Kilmarnock FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2010-04-08 | €25k | Bath City |
| 2013-10-08 | €25k | Inverness Caledonian Thistle FC |
| 2014-02-13 | €50k | Inverness Caledonian Thistle FC |
| 2014-10-08 | €150k | Inverness Caledonian Thistle FC |
| 2015-01-10 | €300k | Inverness Caledonian Thistle FC |
| 2015-10-16 | €300k | Barnsley FC |
| 2016-05-30 | €300k | Barnsley FC |
| 2016-09-01 | €350k | Barnsley FC |
| 2017-02-27 | €1M | Barnsley FC |
| 2017-09-18 | €1M | Norwich City |
| 2018-02-27 | €1M | Norwich City |
| 2018-09-24 | €1M | Bristol City |
| 2019-06-28 | €800k | Bristol City |
| 2020-02-27 | €600k | Bristol City |
| 2020-04-08 | €475k | Bristol City |
| 2021-03-10 | €400k | Bristol City |
| 2021-06-30 | €400k | Bristol City |
| 2021-12-31 | €400k | Aberdeen FC |
| 2022-06-27 | €450k | Aberdeen FC |
| 2022-12-13 | €400k | Aberdeen FC |
| 2023-06-26 | €300k | Aberdeen FC |
| 2023-12-05 | €250k | Kilmarnock FC |
| 2024-05-30 | €200k | Kilmarnock FC |
| 2024-12-03 | €150k | Kilmarnock FC |
| 2025-06-17 | €100k | Kilmarnock FC |
| 2025-12-10 | €50k | Kilmarnock FC |
| 2026-05-20 | €25k | Kilmarnock FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −1.186
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premiership311 players · median €400k
The joint lowest observed value among 311 Premiership players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
The joint lowest observed value among 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Watkins appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- GrahamCFFalkirk FC · Premiership€25k
- CarsonGKRoss County FC · Premiership€25k
- McGowanCBLivingston FC · Premiership€25k
- ArfieldCMLivingston FC · Premiership€25k
- JacobsenCFVejle Boldklub · attackers€25k
- BokilaCFLivingston FC · attackers€25k
- NenêCFAvs Futebol · attackers€50k
- HoilettLWHibernian FC · attackers€50k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).