Scott
Arfield
CMCanada · Livingston FC
Player dossierPremiership
ScottArfield
CMCentral MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Livingston FC
- League
- Premiership
- Nationality
- Canada
- Age
- 37
- Height
- 178 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 20 May 2026
PremiershipReading the valuation
The market values Arfield at €25k. Model A, which never saw Arfield during training, estimates €36k: the market value is 30% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.44. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €73k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 22
- Minutes
- 793
- Goals
- 2
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 8/22
- Min / app
- 36
- Cards
- 2Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Arfield…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €25k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Goals per 90
Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.
0.23 this player0.08 midfielder median86th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- Aug 2007
- Peak
- €3M
- Aug 2016
- Model target
- €25k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 36
- 7 club changes
May 2026: €25k, Livingston FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2007-08-13 | €100k | Falkirk FC |
| 2008-11-13 | €1.3M | Falkirk FC |
| 2008-12-18 | €1.3M | Falkirk FC |
| 2009-10-21 | €1.3M | Falkirk FC |
| 2010-02-25 | €1M | Falkirk FC |
| 2010-08-25 | €700k | Huddersfield Town |
| 2013-03-02 | €500k | Huddersfield Town |
| 2014-01-08 | €1.3M | Burnley FC |
| 2014-08-10 | €2M | Burnley FC |
| 2015-02-12 | €2.5M | Burnley FC |
| 2015-09-24 | €2.5M | Burnley FC |
| 2016-08-01 | €3M | Burnley FC |
| 2017-02-20 | €3M | Burnley FC |
| 2017-06-28 | €3M | Burnley FC |
| 2018-01-02 | €3M | Burnley FC |
| 2018-05-28 | €3M | Burnley FC |
| 2018-08-08 | €2.5M | Rangers FC |
| 2019-01-03 | €2.5M | Rangers FC |
| 2019-08-20 | €2.5M | Rangers FC |
| 2020-02-05 | €2.5M | Rangers FC |
| 2020-04-08 | €2M | Rangers FC |
| 2020-07-21 | €2M | Rangers FC |
| 2021-01-18 | €2M | Rangers FC |
| 2021-06-28 | €2M | Rangers FC |
| 2021-12-31 | €1.6M | Rangers FC |
| 2022-06-27 | €1.5M | Rangers FC |
| 2022-12-13 | €1.5M | Rangers FC |
| 2023-06-26 | €1M | Rangers FC |
| 2023-08-22 | €500k | Charlotte FC |
| 2023-12-18 | €300k | Charlotte FC |
| 2024-06-13 | €250k | Charlotte FC |
| 2024-12-27 | €150k | Bolton Wanderers |
| 2025-06-17 | €100k | Falkirk FC |
| 2025-10-08 | €50k | Falkirk FC |
| 2025-12-10 | €50k | Falkirk FC |
| 2026-05-20 | €25k | Livingston FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.363
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premiership311 players · median €400k
The joint lowest observed value among 311 Premiership players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
The lowest observed value among 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Arfield appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- GrahamCFFalkirk FC · Premiership€25k
- CarsonGKRoss County FC · Premiership€25k
- McGowanCBLivingston FC · Premiership€25k
- BokilaCFLivingston FC · Premiership€25k
- HallidayDMMotherwell FC · midfielders€50k
- TavaresCMCD Tondela · midfielders€50k
- AndersenAMSilkeborg IF · midfielders€50k
- PittmanAMLivingston FC · midfielders€50k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).