EthanMbappé

RWRight WingerAttack

Club: LOSC Lille
League: Ligue 1
Nationality: France
Age: 19
Height: 180 cm
Foot: Left
Valued: 1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Mbappé at €8M. Model A, which never saw Mbappé during training, estimates €10M: the market value is 20% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.25. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €8.8M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 33
Minutes: 901
Goals: 3
Assists: 1
Started: 6/33
Min / app: 27
Cards: 4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mbappé…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €8M

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

14% this player0% attacker median76th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €500k; Oct 2023
Peak: €9M; Dec 2025
Model target: €8M; Jun 2026
Valuations: 9; 1 club change

Jun 2026€8MLOSC LilleValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €8M, LOSC Lille. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2023-10-16	€500k	Paris Saint-Germain U19
2023-12-18	€500k	Paris Saint-Germain U19
2024-06-03	€1.5M	Paris Saint-Germain U19
2024-10-07	€2M	LOSC Lille
2024-12-10	€2M	LOSC Lille
2025-03-24	€5M	LOSC Lille
2025-06-03	€5M	LOSC Lille
2025-12-15	€9M	LOSC Lille
2026-06-01	€8M	LOSC Lille

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: −0.220

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 59% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

See them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 74% of the 1,583 attackers.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Mbappé appears

TerminalLigue 1 in the Player Explorer
TerminalLigue 1 on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).