Hugo
Sotelo
CMSpain · Celta de Vigo
Player dossierLaLiga
HugoSotelo
CMCentral MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Celta de Vigo
- League
- LaLiga
- Nationality
- Spain
- Age
- 22
- Height
- 180 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 5 Jun 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Sotelo at €5M. Model A, which never saw Sotelo during training, estimates €7.8M: the market value is 36% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.56. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.7M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 57
- Minutes
- 3,061
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 2
- Started
- 37/57
- Min / app
- 54
- Cards
- 9Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Sotelo…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
4% this player0% midfielder median65th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Sept 2022
- Peak
- €12M
- Oct 2025
- Model target
- €5M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 12
- 1 club change
Jun 2026: €5M, Celta de Vigo. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-26 | €50k | Celta Vigo B |
| 2022-12-29 | €50k | Celta Vigo B |
| 2023-06-30 | €150k | Celta Vigo B |
| 2023-10-13 | €500k | Celta de Vigo |
| 2023-12-22 | €1M | Celta de Vigo |
| 2024-06-07 | €2.5M | Celta de Vigo |
| 2024-12-27 | €5M | Celta de Vigo |
| 2025-06-09 | €4M | Celta de Vigo |
| 2025-10-02 | €12M | Celta de Vigo |
| 2025-12-12 | €9M | Celta de Vigo |
| 2026-03-16 | €7.5M | Celta de Vigo |
| 2026-06-05 | €5M | Celta de Vigo |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.445
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 65% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Sotelo appears
- TerminalLaLiga in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLaLiga on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- KokeCMAtlético de Madrid · LaLiga€5M
- FebasCMElche CF · LaLiga€5M
- PérezCFVillarreal CF · LaLiga€5M
- BoyéCFDeportivo Alavés · LaLiga€5M
- VanakenAMClub Brugge KV · midfielders€5M
- NørgaardDMArsenal FC · midfielders€5M
- Ward-ProwseCMBurnley FC · midfielders€5M
- HughesCMCrystal Palace · midfielders€5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).