FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
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  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Denys

Nagnoynyi

AMUkraine · FC Kudrivka

№ 892053Emerging €299k +0.16

Player dossierPremier Liha

DenysNagnoynyi

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
FC Kudrivka
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
24
Height
177 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Nagnoynyi at €350k. Model A, which never saw Nagnoynyi during training, estimates €299k: the market value is 17% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.17. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €580k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.16A €299k▼ −0.50B €580k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
22
Minutes
1,308
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
13/22
Min / app
59
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Nagnoynyi…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €350k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €350kModel A €299k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Denys Nagnoynyi's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 43rd, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 20th, Starts 33rd, Minutes, last 365 days 42nd, European club minutes 30th43rdGoals8thAssists20thMinutes33rdStarts42ndRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.07 this player0.08 midfielder median43rd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jul 2022
Peak
€600k
Dec 2023
Model target
€350k
Jun 2026
Valuations
11
2 club changes
Jun 2026€350kFC KudrivkaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €350k, FC Kudrivka. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-07-01€50kZorya Lugansk
2022-09-06€200kZorya Lugansk
2022-12-06€500kZorya Lugansk
2023-06-21€500kZorya Lugansk
2023-12-11€600kZorya Lugansk
2024-06-06€500kZorya Lugansk
2024-12-17€350kMetalist 1925 Kharkiv
2025-06-10€250kMetalist 1925 Kharkiv
2025-12-18€250kFC Kudrivka
2026-03-23€300kFC Kudrivka
2026-06-02€350kFC Kudrivka

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.158

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 37% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€350kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 10% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€350kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Nagnoynyi appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).