FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Ilya

Krupskyi

RBUkraine · Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

№ 889438Emerging €2.2M −0.19

Player dossierPremier Liha

IlyaKrupskyi

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
21
Height
180 cm
Foot
Both
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Krupskyi at €1.8M. Model A, which never saw Krupskyi during training, estimates €2.2M: the market value is 17% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.21. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.19A €2.2M▼ −0.64B €3.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
61
Minutes
5,299
Goals
0
Assists
6
Started
59/61
Min / app
87
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Krupskyi…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.8MModel A €2.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Ilya Krupskyi's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 77th, Minutes, two years 87th, Starts 89th, Minutes, last 365 days 88th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals77thAssists87thMinutes89thStarts88thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

97% this player83% defender median89th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Aug 2022
Peak
€1.8M
Jun 2026
Model target
€1.8M
Jun 2026
Valuations
11
2 club changes
Jun 2026€1.8MMetalist 1925 KharkivValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.8M, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-08-01€50kVorskla Poltava U19
2022-12-06€50kVorskla Poltava U19
2023-06-21€200kVorskla Poltava
2023-12-11€400kVorskla Poltava
2024-06-06€700kVorskla Poltava
2024-12-17€1MVorskla Poltava
2025-03-21€1.2MVorskla Poltava
2025-06-10€1.2MVorskla Poltava
2025-09-10€1.5MMetalist 1925 Kharkiv
2025-12-18€1.5MMetalist 1925 Kharkiv
2026-06-02€1.8MMetalist 1925 Kharkiv

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.190

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 87% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 48% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Krupskyi appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).