FairValue

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Darío

Osorio

RWChile · FC Midtjylland

№ 881116Elite €8.5M +0.57

Player dossierSuperliga

DaríoOsorio

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
FC Midtjylland
League
Superliga
Nationality
Chile
Age
22
Height
184 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
25 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Osorio at €15M. Model A, which never saw Osorio during training, estimates €8.5M: the market value is 77% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.77. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €11.9M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.57A €8.5M▲ +0.23B €11.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
68
Minutes
4,562
Goals
12
Assists
11
Started
54/68
Min / app
67
Cards
11Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Osorio…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €15M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €15MModel A €8.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Darío Osorio's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 45th, Assists per 90 75th, Minutes, two years 87th, Starts 82nd, Minutes, last 365 days 86th, European club minutes 98th45thGoals75thAssists87thMinutes82ndStarts86thRecent98thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

41% this player0% attacker median98th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Mar 2022
Peak
€15M
May 2026
Model target
€15M
May 2026
Valuations
12
1 club change
May 2026€15MFC MidtjyllandValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €15M, FC Midtjylland. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-03-28€250kClub Universidad de Chile
2022-06-16€500kClub Universidad de Chile
2022-11-15€3MClub Universidad de Chile
2023-04-04€3MClub Universidad de Chile
2023-07-20€3.5MClub Universidad de Chile
2023-09-19€4.5MFC Midtjylland
2023-12-21€5MFC Midtjylland
2024-06-10€7MFC Midtjylland
2024-12-09€8MFC Midtjylland
2025-06-16€8MFC Midtjylland
2025-12-15€10MFC Midtjylland
2026-05-25€15MFC Midtjylland

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.568

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Superliga256 players · median €800k

2nd highest observed value among 256 Superliga players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€15MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 81% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€15MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Osorio appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).