Lucas
Beraldo
CBBrazil · Paris Saint-Germain
Player dossierLigue 1
LucasBeraldo
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Paris Saint-Germain
- League
- Ligue 1
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Age
- 22
- Height
- 186 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 1 Jun 2026
Ligue 1Reading the valuation
The market values Beraldo at €22M. Model A, which never saw Beraldo during training, estimates €22.7M: the market value is 3% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.03. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €9.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 56
- Minutes
- 4,067
- Goals
- 3
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 44/56
- Min / app
- 73
- Cards
- 8Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Beraldo…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €22M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
12% this player0% defender median74th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €1.5M
- Apr 2022
- Peak
- €30M
- Jun 2024
- Model target
- €22M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 13
- 2 club changes
Jun 2026: €22M, Paris Saint-Germain. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-06 | €1.5M | São Paulo FC U20 |
| 2022-08-19 | €1.5M | São Paulo Futebol Clube |
| 2022-11-14 | €1.5M | São Paulo Futebol Clube |
| 2023-04-07 | €2.5M | São Paulo Futebol Clube |
| 2023-07-25 | €6M | São Paulo Futebol Clube |
| 2023-12-11 | €15M | São Paulo Futebol Clube |
| 2024-03-19 | €20M | Paris Saint-Germain |
| 2024-06-03 | €30M | Paris Saint-Germain |
| 2024-12-10 | €30M | Paris Saint-Germain |
| 2025-03-24 | €25M | Paris Saint-Germain |
| 2025-06-03 | €25M | Paris Saint-Germain |
| 2025-12-15 | €20M | Paris Saint-Germain |
| 2026-06-01 | €22M | Paris Saint-Germain |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.030
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Ligue 1423 players · median €5M
Valued above 88% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 92% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Beraldo appears
- TerminalLigue 1 in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLigue 1 on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- AdingraLWAS Monaco · Ligue 1€22M
- GodoLWRC Strasbourg Alsace · Ligue 1€22M
- MourabetCMRC Strasbourg Alsace · Ligue 1€22M
- SarrCBRC Lens · Ligue 1€20M
- KrejciCBWolverhampton Wanderers · defenders€22M
- RobinsonLBFulham FC · defenders€22M
- SessegnonLBFulham FC · defenders€22M
- StruijkCBLeeds United · defenders€22M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).