FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Sorriso

LWBrazil · FC Famalicão

№ 868101Established €8.8M −0.56

Player dossierLiga Portugal

Sorriso

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
FC Famalicão
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Brazil
Age
25
Height
175 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Sorriso at €5M. Model A, which never saw Sorriso during training, estimates €8.8M: the market value is 43% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.76. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €7.3M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.56A €8.8M▼ −0.37B €7.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
62
Minutes
4,838
Goals
13
Assists
9
Started
57/62
Min / app
78
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Sorriso…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €8.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Sorriso's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 46th, Assists per 90 58th, Minutes, two years 90th, Starts 96th, Minutes, last 365 days 92nd, European club minutes 28th46thGoals58thAssists90thMinutes96thStarts92ndRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

92% this player59% attacker median96th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
May 2021
Peak
€5M
May 2025
Model target
€5M
May 2026
Valuations
14
2 club changes
May 2026€5MFC FamalicãoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €5M, FC Famalicão. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2021-05-28€300kEsporte Clube Juventude
2021-12-17€500kEsporte Clube Juventude
2022-04-06€1MRed Bull Bragantino
2022-08-19€1.5MRed Bull Bragantino
2022-11-14€1.5MRed Bull Bragantino
2023-04-07€1.5MRed Bull Bragantino
2023-07-25€1.5MRed Bull Bragantino
2023-12-11€2.5MRed Bull Bragantino
2024-06-06€2.5MFC Famalicão
2024-10-08€4MFC Famalicão
2024-12-19€4MFC Famalicão
2025-05-30€5MFC Famalicão
2025-12-18€5MFC Famalicão
2026-05-28€5MFC Famalicão

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.563

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 76% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 64% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Sorriso appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).