FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Nacho Ferri

Nacho

Ferri

CFSpain · KVC Westerlo

№ 867357Established €5.7M +0.05

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPro League

NachoFerri

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
KVC Westerlo
League
Pro League
Nationality
Spain
Age
21
Height
192 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ferri at €6M. Model A, which never saw Ferri during training, estimates €5.7M: the market value is 5% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.05. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €8.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.05A €5.7M▼ −0.31B €8.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
63
Minutes
4,768
Goals
17
Assists
5
Started
56/63
Min / app
76
Cards
13Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ferri…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €6M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €6MModel A €5.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Nacho Ferri's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 61st, Assists per 90 29th, Minutes, two years 89th, Starts 93rd, Minutes, last 365 days 94th, European club minutes 28th61stGoals29thAssists89thMinutes93rdStarts94thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,913 this player1,301 attacker median94th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,703

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
Jun 2023
Peak
€6M
Jun 2026
Model target
€6M
Jun 2026
Valuations
11
2 club changes
Jun 2026€6MKVC WesterloValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €6M, KVC Westerlo. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-06-22€500kEintracht Frankfurt
2023-10-18€3MEintracht Frankfurt
2023-12-14€3MEintracht Frankfurt
2024-03-27€2MEintracht Frankfurt
2024-05-29€2MEintracht Frankfurt
2024-12-11€2.2MKV Kortrijk
2025-06-12€2.2MKV Kortrijk
2025-10-01€3MKVC Westerlo
2025-12-10€3MKVC Westerlo
2026-03-13€4MKVC Westerlo
2026-06-04€6MKVC Westerlo

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.048

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 89% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 68% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ferri appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).