FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Daan

Heymans

AMBelgium · KRC Genk

№ 446491Established €7.2M −0.18

Player dossierPro League

DaanHeymans

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
KRC Genk
League
Pro League
Nationality
Belgium
Age
26
Height
191 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Heymans at €6M. Model A, which never saw Heymans during training, estimates €7.2M: the market value is 17% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.20. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €15.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.18A €7.2M▼ −0.93B €15.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
69
Minutes
5,585
Goals
25
Assists
9
Started
65/69
Min / app
81
Cards
12Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Heymans…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €6M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €6MModel A €7.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Daan Heymans's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 98th, Assists per 90 69th, Minutes, two years 92nd, Starts 92nd, Minutes, last 365 days 92nd, European club minutes 77th98thGoals69thAssists92ndMinutes92ndStarts92ndRecent77thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.40 this player0.08 midfielder median98th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jul 2016
Peak
€6M
Jun 2026
Model target
€6M
Jun 2026
Valuations
23
6 club changes
Jun 2026€6MKRC GenkValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €6M, KRC Genk. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-07-15€50kKVC Westerlo
2017-01-21€100kKVC Westerlo
2017-06-06€100kKVC Westerlo
2017-10-25€175kKVC Westerlo
2018-04-05€400kKVC Westerlo
2018-12-27€350kKVRS Waasland - SK Beveren
2019-06-10€350kLommel SK
2019-12-13€350kKVRS Waasland - SK Beveren
2020-04-08€325kKVRS Waasland - SK Beveren
2020-10-16€900kKVRS Waasland - SK Beveren
2021-06-07€1MKVRS Waasland - SK Beveren
2021-12-28€1MVenezia FC
2022-04-12€1.2MRoyal Charleroi SC
2022-11-04€1.5MRoyal Charleroi SC
2023-06-09€2MRoyal Charleroi SC
2023-12-19€1.5MRoyal Charleroi SC
2024-06-04€1.5MRoyal Charleroi SC
2024-10-02€2.5MRoyal Charleroi SC
2024-12-11€3MRoyal Charleroi SC
2025-06-12€3MRoyal Charleroi SC
2025-12-10€4MKRC Genk
2026-03-13€5MKRC Genk
2026-06-04€6MKRC Genk

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.184

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 89% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 69% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Heymans appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).