FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Ezechiel Banzuzi

Ezechiel

Banzuzi

CMNetherlands · RB Leipzig

№ 865682Elite €7.8M +0.72

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierBundesliga

EzechielBanzuzi

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
RB Leipzig
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
21
Height
191 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Banzuzi at €16M. Model A, which never saw Banzuzi during training, estimates €7.8M: the market value is 106% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.06. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.72A €7.8M▲ +1.42B €3.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
56
Minutes
2,836
Goals
4
Assists
7
Started
27/56
Min / app
51
Cards
13Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Banzuzi…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €16M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €16MModel A €7.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Ezechiel Banzuzi's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 65th, Assists per 90 88th, Minutes, two years 54th, Starts 19th, Minutes, last 365 days 22nd, European club minutes 30th65thGoals88thAssists54thMinutes19thStarts22ndRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.22 this player0.09 midfielder median88th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jan 2022
Peak
€18M
Oct 2025
Model target
€16M
May 2026
Valuations
13
3 club changes
May 2026€16MRB LeipzigValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €16M, RB Leipzig. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-01-12€50kNAC Breda U18
2022-10-12€300kNAC Breda
2023-04-03€400kNAC Breda
2023-07-04€1MOud-Heverlee Leuven
2023-12-19€1MOud-Heverlee Leuven
2024-06-04€2MOud-Heverlee Leuven
2024-10-02€3MOud-Heverlee Leuven
2024-12-11€5MOud-Heverlee Leuven
2025-03-26€10MOud-Heverlee Leuven
2025-06-12€13MOud-Heverlee Leuven
2025-10-14€18MRB Leipzig
2025-12-19€18MRB Leipzig
2026-05-27€16MRB Leipzig

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.722

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 78% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€16MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 86% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€16MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Banzuzi appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).