FairValue

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Burhan

Ersoy

CBTürkiye · Fatih Karagümrük

№ 859924Emerging €430k −1.46

Player dossierSüper Lig

BurhanErsoy

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Fatih Karagümrük
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Türkiye
Age
22
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ersoy at €100k. Model A, which never saw Ersoy during training, estimates €430k: the market value is 77% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×4.30. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €750k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −1.46A €430k▼ −2.02B €750k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
20
Minutes
971
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
13/20
Min / app
49
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ersoy…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €100k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €100kModel A €430k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Burhan Ersoy's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 11th, Starts 21st, Minutes, last 365 days 4th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals17thAssists11thMinutes21stStarts4thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% defender median30th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jan 2024
Peak
€100k
Jun 2025
Model target
€100k
May 2026
Valuations
9
1 club change
May 2026€100kFatih KaragümrükValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €100k, Fatih Karagümrük. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2024-01-20€50kAdana Demirspor
2024-03-15€50kAdana Demirspor
2024-05-31€50kAdana Demirspor
2024-10-04€50kAdana Demirspor
2024-12-23€50kAdana Demirspor
2025-03-20€50kAdana Demirspor
2025-06-18€100kAdana Demirspor
2025-12-17€100kFatih Karagümrük
2026-05-21€100kFatih Karagümrük

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−1.458

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 1% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€100kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 1% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€100kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ersoy appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).