João
Aurélio
RBPortugal · CD Nacional
Player dossierLiga Portugal
JoãoAurélio
RBRight-BackDefender
- Club
- CD Nacional
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Portugal
- Age
- 37
- Height
- 182 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Aurélio at €50k. Model A, which never saw Aurélio during training, estimates €80k: the market value is 38% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.60. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €161k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 36
- Minutes
- 1,816
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 20/36
- Min / app
- 50
- Cards
- 4Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Aurélio…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €50k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Goals per 90
Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.
0.05 this player0.03 defender median63rd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €300k
- Oct 2008
- Peak
- €2.6M
- Jul 2015
- Model target
- €50k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 33
- 4 club changes
May 2026: €50k, CD Nacional. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2008-10-23 | €300k | CD Nacional |
| 2009-07-02 | €600k | CD Nacional |
| 2010-07-01 | €800k | CD Nacional |
| 2011-06-29 | €800k | CD Nacional |
| 2012-07-05 | €1M | CD Nacional |
| 2013-04-03 | €1.5M | CD Nacional |
| 2013-07-02 | €1.5M | CD Nacional |
| 2014-07-25 | €2M | CD Nacional |
| 2015-02-17 | €2.4M | CD Nacional |
| 2015-07-01 | €2.6M | CD Nacional |
| 2016-02-24 | €2.5M | CD Nacional |
| 2016-07-29 | €2.5M | Vitória Guimarães SC |
| 2017-02-22 | €2M | Vitória Guimarães SC |
| 2017-06-26 | €1.8M | Vitória Guimarães SC |
| 2018-02-07 | €1.3M | Vitória Guimarães SC |
| 2018-06-13 | €1.3M | Vitória Guimarães SC |
| 2019-01-11 | €800k | Moreirense FC |
| 2019-06-07 | €800k | Moreirense FC |
| 2019-12-30 | €700k | Moreirense FC |
| 2020-04-08 | €550k | Moreirense FC |
| 2020-08-17 | €600k | Moreirense FC |
| 2020-10-06 | €600k | Pafos FC |
| 2021-05-14 | €500k | Pafos FC |
| 2022-01-11 | €500k | Pafos FC |
| 2022-06-20 | €400k | Pafos FC |
| 2022-12-28 | €200k | CD Nacional |
| 2023-06-28 | €125k | CD Nacional |
| 2023-12-14 | €100k | CD Nacional |
| 2024-06-20 | €75k | CD Nacional |
| 2024-12-19 | €75k | CD Nacional |
| 2025-05-30 | €50k | CD Nacional |
| 2025-12-18 | €50k | CD Nacional |
| 2026-05-28 | €50k | CD Nacional |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.471
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 0% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 0% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Aurélio appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- NenêCFAvs Futebol · Liga Portugal€50k
- MatiasLWSC Farense · Liga Portugal€50k
- BebetoRBCD Tondela · Liga Portugal€50k
- TavaresCMCD Tondela · Liga Portugal€50k
- UtsievRBAkhmat Grozny · defenders€50k
- BotíaCBAE Kifisia · defenders€50k
- KöybaşıLBGöztepe · defenders€50k
- AlbornozLBVejle Boldklub · defenders€50k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).