FairValue

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Hélder

Tavares

CMCape Verde · CD Tondela

№ 134608Emerging €84k −0.52

Player dossierLiga Portugal

HélderTavares

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
CD Tondela
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Cape Verde
Age
36
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Tavares at €50k. Model A, which never saw Tavares during training, estimates €84k: the market value is 40% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.67. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €129k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.52A €84k▼ −0.95B €129k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
21
Minutes
651
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
7/21
Min / app
31
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Tavares…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €50k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €50kModel A €84k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Hélder Tavares's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 5th, Starts 6th, Minutes, last 365 days 18th, European club minutes 30th10thGoals8thAssists5thMinutes6thStarts18thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% midfielder median30th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Oct 2013
Peak
€800k
Feb 2018
Model target
€50k
May 2026
Valuations
27
6 club changes
May 2026€50kCD TondelaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €50k, CD Tondela. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-10-28€250kSC Beira-Mar
2014-09-01€300kSC Beira-Mar
2014-12-15€300kOtelul Galati
2015-06-01€300kOtelul Galati
2016-02-24€500kCD Tondela
2016-07-29€600kCD Tondela
2017-02-22€450kCD Tondela
2017-06-26€600kCD Tondela
2018-02-07€800kCD Tondela
2018-06-13€800kCD Tondela
2019-01-11€800kCD Tondela
2019-06-17€500kAltay SK
2020-02-04€425kAltay SK
2020-04-08€350kAltay SK
2020-08-27€300kAltay SK
2020-12-30€200kWithout Club
2021-06-03€200kFC Voluntari
2021-12-22€200kFC Voluntari
2022-06-03€200kFC Voluntari
2022-12-21€250kFC Voluntari
2023-06-15€200kFC Voluntari
2023-12-14€100kCD Tondela
2024-06-20€75kCD Tondela
2024-12-16€75kCD Tondela
2025-06-23€75kCD Tondela
2025-12-18€50kCD Tondela
2026-05-28€50kCD Tondela

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.516

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 0% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€50kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 0% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€50kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Tavares appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).