FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Aleksandr

Erokhin

AMRussia · Zenit St. Petersburg

№ 84483Emerging €648k −1.87

Player dossierPremier Liga

AleksandrErokhin

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Zenit St. Petersburg
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
36
Height
195 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Erokhin at €100k. Model A, which never saw Erokhin during training, estimates €648k: the market value is 85% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×6.48. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €273k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −1.87A €648k▼ −1.01B €273k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
53
Minutes
1,425
Goals
9
Assists
4
Started
12/53
Min / app
27
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Erokhin…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €100k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €100kModel A €648k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Aleksandr Erokhin's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 100th, Assists per 90 92nd, Minutes, two years 23rd, Starts 2nd, Minutes, last 365 days 10th, European club minutes 30th100thGoals92ndAssists23rdMinutes2ndStarts10thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.57 this player0.08 midfielder median100th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1M
Nov 2009
Peak
€7.5M
Dec 2018
Model target
€100k
May 2026
Valuations
39
5 club changes
May 2026€100kZenit St. PetersburgValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €100k, Zenit St. Petersburg. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2009-11-29€1MFC Sheriff Tiraspol
2010-12-28€800kFC Sheriff Tiraspol
2011-03-21€800kFC Krasnodar
2011-07-29€800kFC Krasnodar
2011-12-23€800kFC Krasnodar
2012-06-24€800kFC Krasnodar
2013-01-22€500kSKA-Energia Khabarovsk
2013-06-08€450kSKA-Energia Khabarovsk
2013-09-13€800kUral Yekaterinburg
2014-03-28€800kUral Yekaterinburg
2014-07-31€800kUral Yekaterinburg
2015-02-23€1.5MUral Yekaterinburg
2015-06-18€1.5MUral Yekaterinburg
2015-08-28€3MUral Yekaterinburg
2016-01-06€3.8MUral Yekaterinburg
2016-05-25€5MFC Rostov
2016-12-27€5MFC Rostov
2017-06-01€5MFC Rostov
2017-12-23€5MZenit St. Petersburg
2018-06-06€5MZenit St. Petersburg
2018-10-15€7MZenit St. Petersburg
2018-12-20€7.5MZenit St. Petersburg
2019-06-14€7.5MZenit St. Petersburg
2019-12-23€6.5MZenit St. Petersburg
2020-04-08€5.2MZenit St. Petersburg
2020-07-29€3.2MZenit St. Petersburg
2020-12-29€3MZenit St. Petersburg
2021-06-02€2.5MZenit St. Petersburg
2021-09-15€3MZenit St. Petersburg
2021-12-29€2.8MZenit St. Petersburg
2022-06-02€1.5MZenit St. Petersburg
2022-11-21€1MZenit St. Petersburg
2023-06-14€700kZenit St. Petersburg
2023-12-13€500kZenit St. Petersburg
2024-06-04€400kZenit St. Petersburg
2024-12-12€300kZenit St. Petersburg
2025-06-04€250kZenit St. Petersburg
2025-12-16€200kZenit St. Petersburg
2026-05-26€100kZenit St. Petersburg

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−1.868

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 0% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€100kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 0% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€100kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Erokhin appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).