FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Enzo

Tchato

RBCameroon · Montpellier HSC

№ 842338Emerging €3.3M −0.61

Player dossierLigue 1

EnzoTchato

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Montpellier HSC
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
Cameroon
Age
23
Height
182 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
11 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Tchato at €1.8M. Model A, which never saw Tchato during training, estimates €3.3M: the market value is 46% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.84. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.61A €3.3M▲ +0.41B €1.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
40
Minutes
2,880
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
31/40
Min / app
72
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Tchato…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.8MModel A €3.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Enzo Tchato's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 50th, Starts 39th, Minutes, last 365 days 28th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals17thAssists50thMinutes39thStarts28thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

2,880 this player2,860 defender median50th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Mar 2022
Peak
€3M
Mar 2023
Model target
€1.8M
Dec 2025
Valuations
12
1 club change
Dec 2025€1.8MMontpellier HSCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €1.8M, Montpellier HSC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-03-30€200kMontpellier HSC B
2022-05-30€250kMontpellier HSC B
2022-11-02€2.5MMontpellier HSC
2023-03-27€3MMontpellier HSC
2023-06-27€2.5MMontpellier HSC
2023-12-18€2MMontpellier HSC
2024-03-19€2.5MMontpellier HSC
2024-06-03€2.5MMontpellier HSC
2024-12-10€2.5MMontpellier HSC
2025-06-03€2.5MMontpellier HSC
2025-10-13€2MMontpellier HSC
2025-12-11€1.8MMontpellier HSC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.612

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 16% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 48% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Tchato appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).