Gaspar
CBAngola · US Lecce
Player dossierSerie A
Gaspar
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- US Lecce
- League
- Serie A
- Nationality
- Angola
- Age
- 28
- Height
- 193 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 29 May 2026
Serie AReading the valuation
The market values Gaspar at €3M. Model A, which never saw Gaspar during training, estimates €3.2M: the market value is 6% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.06. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 51
- Minutes
- 4,251
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 47/51
- Min / app
- 83
- Cards
- 9Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gaspar…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
92% this player83% defender median76th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €350k
- Dec 2022
- Peak
- €3.5M
- Jun 2025
- Model target
- €3M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 10
- 1 club change
May 2026: €3M, US Lecce. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-28 | €350k | CF Estrela Amadora |
| 2023-06-28 | €650k | CF Estrela Amadora |
| 2023-09-29 | €1M | CF Estrela Amadora |
| 2023-12-27 | €1M | CF Estrela Amadora |
| 2024-06-06 | €1.5M | CF Estrela Amadora |
| 2024-10-18 | €2.5M | US Lecce |
| 2024-12-18 | €2.5M | US Lecce |
| 2025-06-17 | €3.5M | US Lecce |
| 2025-12-23 | €3.5M | US Lecce |
| 2026-05-29 | €3M | US Lecce |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.061
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Serie A507 players · median €5.5M
Valued above 29% of the 507 Serie A players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 59% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Gaspar appears
- TerminalSerie A in the Player Explorer
- TerminalSerie A on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- MkhitaryanCMInter Milan · Serie A€3M
- VrijCBInter Milan · Serie A€3M
- FreulerCMBologna FC 1909 · Serie A€3M
- GarciaLBUS Sassuolo · Serie A€3M
- AlabaCBReal Madrid · defenders€3M
- KeaneCBEverton FC · defenders€3M
- WeiserRBSV Werder Bremen · defenders€3M
- CanCBBorussia Dortmund · defenders€3M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).