Javi
Guerra
CMSpain · Valencia CF
Player dossierLaLiga
JaviGuerra
CMCentral MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Valencia CF
- League
- LaLiga
- Nationality
- Spain
- Age
- 23
- Height
- 187 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 5 Jun 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Guerra at €25M. Model A, which never saw Guerra during training, estimates €15.1M: the market value is 66% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.66. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €15.4M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 78
- Minutes
- 5,028
- Goals
- 7
- Assists
- 9
- Started
- 60/78
- Min / app
- 64
- Cards
- 8Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Guerra…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €25M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Minutes, two years
Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.
5,028 this player2,607 midfielder median86th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €25k
- Sept 2022
- Peak
- €25M
- Jun 2025
- Model target
- €25M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 10
- 1 club change
Jun 2026: €25M, Valencia CF. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-26 | €25k | Valencia Mestalla |
| 2022-12-29 | €50k | Valencia Mestalla |
| 2023-06-13 | €2M | Valencia Mestalla |
| 2023-10-13 | €20M | Valencia CF |
| 2023-12-22 | €20M | Valencia CF |
| 2024-06-07 | €20M | Valencia CF |
| 2024-12-27 | €20M | Valencia CF |
| 2025-06-09 | €25M | Valencia CF |
| 2025-12-12 | €25M | Valencia CF |
| 2026-06-05 | €25M | Valencia CF |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.505
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 91% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Guerra appears
- TerminalLaLiga in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLaLiga on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- OyarzabalCFReal Sociedad · LaLiga€25M
- SancetAMAthletic Bilbao · LaLiga€25M
- RomeroLBRCD Espanyol Barcelona · LaLiga€25M
- GorrotxategiDMReal Sociedad · LaLiga€25M
- LocatelliDMJuventus FC · midfielders€25M
- KluivertAMAFC Bournemouth · midfielders€25M
- AdamsDMAFC Bournemouth · midfielders€25M
- BergeDMFulham FC · midfielders€25M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).