FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Carlos

Romero

LBSpain · RCD Espanyol Barcelona

№ 709372Elite €10.2M +0.90

Player dossierLaLiga

CarlosRomero

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
RCD Espanyol Barcelona
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
24
Height
174 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Romero at €25M. Model A, which never saw Romero during training, estimates €10.2M: the market value is 146% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.46. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €8.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.90A €10.2M▲ +1.11B €8.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
71
Minutes
5,840
Goals
8
Assists
4
Started
65/71
Min / app
82
Cards
11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Romero…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €25M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €25MModel A €10.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Carlos Romero's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 92nd, Assists per 90 64th, Minutes, two years 91st, Starts 74th, Minutes, last 365 days 92nd, European club minutes 30th92ndGoals64thAssists91stMinutes74thStarts92ndRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.12 this player0.03 defender median92nd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Sept 2022
Peak
€25M
Mar 2026
Model target
€25M
Jun 2026
Valuations
15
1 club change
Jun 2026€25MRCD Espanyol BarcelonaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €25M, RCD Espanyol Barcelona. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-09-26€100kVillarreal CF B
2022-12-29€100kVillarreal CF B
2023-06-14€100kVillarreal CF B
2023-10-13€1MVillarreal CF B
2023-12-20€2MVillarreal CF B
2024-03-26€1.5MVillarreal CF B
2024-06-07€1.5MVillarreal CF B
2024-10-11€2.5MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2024-12-27€2.5MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2025-03-21€3MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2025-06-09€5MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2025-10-02€10MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2025-12-12€15MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2026-03-16€25MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2026-06-05€25MRCD Espanyol Barcelona

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.901

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 89% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€25MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 93% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€25MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Romero appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).