FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Valeriy

Samar

CBUkraine · Livyi Bereg Kyiv

№ 825229Emerging €314k +0.11

Player dossierPremier Liha

ValeriySamar

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Livyi Bereg Kyiv
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
24
Height
192 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
18 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Samar at €350k. Model A, which never saw Samar during training, estimates €314k: the market value is 12% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.12. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €883k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.11A €314k▼ −0.93B €883k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
11
Minutes
980
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
11/11
Min / app
89
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Samar…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €350k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €350kModel A €314k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Valeriy Samar's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 84th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 12th, Starts 97th, Minutes, last 365 days 7th, European club minutes 30th84thGoals17thAssists12thMinutes97thStarts7thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player83% defender median97th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Dec 2023
Peak
€350k
Dec 2025
Model target
€350k
Dec 2025
Valuations
6
0 club changes
Dec 2025€350kLivyi Bereg KyivValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €350k, Livyi Bereg Kyiv. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-12-11€50kLivyi Bereg Kyiv
2024-06-06€75kLivyi Bereg Kyiv
2024-09-12€300kLivyi Bereg Kyiv
2024-12-17€300kLivyi Bereg Kyiv
2025-06-10€300kLivyi Bereg Kyiv
2025-12-18€350kLivyi Bereg Kyiv

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.109

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 37% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€350kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 12% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€350kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Samar appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).