Damion
Downs
CFUnited States · Hamburger SV
Player dossierBundesliga
DamionDowns
CFCentre-ForwardAttack
- Club
- Hamburger SV
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- United States
- Age
- 21
- Height
- 192 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 27 May 2026
BundesligaReading the valuation
The market values Downs at €4M. Model A, which never saw Downs during training, estimates €3.3M: the market value is 22% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.22. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €982k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 15
- Minutes
- 657
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 7/15
- Min / app
- 44
- Cards
- 0Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Downs…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
47% this player59% attacker median29th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €250k
- Jun 2023
- Peak
- €8M
- Oct 2025
- Model target
- €4M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 13
- 3 club changes
May 2026: €4M, Hamburger SV. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-06-22 | €250k | 1.FC Köln U19 |
| 2023-10-18 | €600k | 1.FC Köln |
| 2023-12-14 | €600k | 1.FC Köln |
| 2024-03-27 | €1M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2024-05-29 | €2M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2024-09-25 | €2.5M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2024-12-19 | €3M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2025-03-26 | €5M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2025-06-19 | €6M | 1.FC Köln |
| 2025-10-06 | €8M | Southampton FC |
| 2025-12-03 | €7M | Southampton FC |
| 2026-03-20 | €6M | Hamburger SV |
| 2026-05-27 | €4M | Hamburger SV |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.199
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 39% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 59% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Downs appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- NeuerGKBayern Munich · Bundesliga€4M
- SüleCBBorussia Dortmund · Bundesliga€4M
- GrifoLWSC Freiburg · Bundesliga€4M
- ZettererGKEintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga€4M
- IcardiCFGalatasaray · attackers€4M
- WilsonCFWest Ham United · attackers€4M
- TraoréRWSunderland AFC · attackers€4M
- ElyounoussiSSFC Copenhagen · attackers€4M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).