Otávio
CBBrazil · Paris FC
Player dossierLigue 1
Otávio
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Paris FC
- League
- Ligue 1
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Age
- 24
- Height
- 188 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 1 Jun 2026
Ligue 1Reading the valuation
The market values Otávio at €10M. Model A, which never saw Otávio during training, estimates €15.2M: the market value is 34% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.52. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €9.8M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 51
- Minutes
- 4,157
- Goals
- 3
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 46/51
- Min / app
- 82
- Cards
- 15Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Otávio…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Goals per 90
Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.
0.06 this player0.03 defender median72nd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- Aug 2022
- Peak
- €13M
- Jun 2024
- Model target
- €10M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 12
- 4 club changes
Jun 2026: €10M, Paris FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-08-05 | €100k | CR Flamengo U20 |
| 2023-06-16 | €600k | FC Famalicão U23 |
| 2023-09-29 | €1.5M | FC Famalicão |
| 2023-12-27 | €3M | FC Famalicão |
| 2024-03-08 | €10M | FC Porto |
| 2024-06-06 | €13M | FC Porto |
| 2024-10-08 | €12M | FC Porto |
| 2024-12-19 | €12M | FC Porto |
| 2025-05-30 | €10M | FC Porto |
| 2025-10-10 | €12M | Paris FC |
| 2025-12-15 | €10M | Paris FC |
| 2026-06-01 | €10M | Paris FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.417
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Ligue 1423 players · median €5M
Valued above 66% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 81% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Otávio appears
- TerminalLigue 1 in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLigue 1 on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- MinaminoLWAS Monaco · Ligue 1€10M
- TolissoCMOlympique Lyon · Ligue 1€10M
- Saint-MaximinLWRC Lens · Ligue 1€10M
- Maitland-NilesRBOlympique Lyon · Ligue 1€10M
- FriedlCBSV Werder Bremen · defenders€10M
- ŠkriniarCBFenerbahce · defenders€10M
- LienhartCBSC Freiburg · defenders€10M
- RrahmaniCBSSC Napoli · defenders€10M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).