Adriel
GKBrazil · Avs Futebol
Player dossierLiga Portugal
Adriel
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- Avs Futebol
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Age
- 25
- Height
- 195 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Liga PortugalReading the valuation
The market values Adriel at €900k. Model A, which never saw Adriel during training, estimates €493k: the market value is 82% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.82. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 16
- Minutes
- 1,440
- Started
- 16/16
- Min / app
- 90
- Cards
- 2Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Adriel…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €900k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- May 2021
- Peak
- €1.5M
- Mar 2024
- Model target
- €900k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 12
- 2 club changes
May 2026: €900k, Avs Futebol. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-05-28 | €100k | Grêmio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense |
| 2021-12-17 | €200k | Grêmio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense |
| 2022-08-05 | €200k | Grêmio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense |
| 2023-04-07 | €1.2M | Grêmio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense |
| 2023-07-25 | €1.2M | Grêmio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense |
| 2023-12-11 | €1.2M | Grêmio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense |
| 2024-03-28 | €1.5M | Grêmio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense |
| 2024-06-17 | €1.5M | Grêmio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense |
| 2024-12-09 | €1.2M | Grêmio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense |
| 2025-06-27 | €1M | Athletic Club |
| 2025-11-24 | €800k | Athletic Club |
| 2026-05-28 | €900k | Avs Futebol |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.601
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 41% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 45% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Adriel appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- MansoRBCD Tondela · Liga Portugal€900k
- AïkoLWCD Tondela · Liga Portugal€900k
- SpencerRBFC Alverca · Liga Portugal€900k
- OtamendiCBSL Benfica · Liga Portugal€1M
- LopesGKFC Nantes · goalkeepers€900k
- TerraccianoGKAC Milan · goalkeepers€900k
- CrombruggeGKKRC Genk · goalkeepers€900k
- DiawGKLe Havre AC · goalkeepers€900k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).