FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Frank

Feller

GKGermany · 1.FC Heidenheim 1846

№ 806948Emerging €1.3M −0.45

Player dossierBundesliga

FrankFeller

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
1.FC Heidenheim 1846
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Germany
Age
22
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Feller at €800k. Model A, which never saw Feller during training, estimates €1.3M: the market value is 36% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.57. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.45A €1.3M▼ −0.47B €1.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
7
Minutes
570
Started
6/7
Min / app
81
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Feller…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €800k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €800kModel A €1.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Frank Feller's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 6th, Starts 4th, Minutes, last 365 days 11th, European club minutes 80th6thMinutes4thStarts11thRecent80thEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

16% this player0% goalkeeper median80th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●86%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
May 2024
Peak
€800k
May 2026
Model target
€800k
May 2026
Valuations
7
0 club changes
May 2026€800k1.FC Heidenheim 1846Valuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €800k, 1.FC Heidenheim 1846. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2024-05-29€200k1.FC Heidenheim 1846
2024-10-09€350k1.FC Heidenheim 1846
2024-12-20€350k1.FC Heidenheim 1846
2025-03-27€500k1.FC Heidenheim 1846
2025-06-05€500k1.FC Heidenheim 1846
2025-12-19€500k1.FC Heidenheim 1846
2026-05-27€800k1.FC Heidenheim 1846

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.451

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 5% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 39% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Feller appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).