FairValue

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Portrait of Ørjan Nyland

Ørjan

Nyland

GKNorway · Sevilla FC

№ 73517Emerging €354k +0.82

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLaLiga

ØrjanNyland

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Sevilla FC
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Norway
Age
35
Height
192 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Nyland at €800k. Model A, which never saw Nyland during training, estimates €354k: the market value is 126% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.26. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €289k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.82A €354k▲ +1.02B €289k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
38
Minutes
3,394
Started
38/38
Min / app
89
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Nyland…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €800k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €800kModel A €354k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Ørjan Nyland's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 62nd, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 26th, European club minutes 32nd62ndMinutes62ndStarts26thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

3,394 this player2,790 goalkeeper median62nd percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,210

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Feb 2012
Peak
€3M
Sept 2018
Model target
€800k
Jun 2026
Valuations
33
9 club changes
Jun 2026€800kSevilla FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €800k, Sevilla FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-02-02€200kIL Hødd
2012-08-05€200kIL Hødd
2013-07-22€1MMolde FK
2014-01-02€1.4MMolde FK
2014-12-07€1.6MMolde FK
2015-07-01€1.8MFC Ingolstadt 04
2015-10-16€1.5MFC Ingolstadt 04
2016-02-15€1MFC Ingolstadt 04
2016-07-22€1MFC Ingolstadt 04
2017-01-27€1MFC Ingolstadt 04
2017-06-19€800kFC Ingolstadt 04
2018-01-22€800kFC Ingolstadt 04
2018-06-19€800kFC Ingolstadt 04
2018-09-24€3MAston Villa
2019-06-28€3MAston Villa
2019-09-12€2MAston Villa
2019-12-10€1.5MAston Villa
2020-04-08€1.2MAston Villa
2021-03-10€1MNorwich City
2021-06-30€1MNorwich City
2021-11-24€700kAFC Bournemouth
2022-05-13€700kReading FC
2022-10-07€600kWithout Club
2022-11-09€600kRB Leipzig
2023-06-22€600kRB Leipzig
2023-10-13€1MSevilla FC
2023-12-22€1MSevilla FC
2024-03-21€1.5MSevilla FC
2024-06-07€1.4MSevilla FC
2024-12-27€1MSevilla FC
2025-06-09€900kSevilla FC
2025-12-12€900kSevilla FC
2026-06-05€800kSevilla FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.815

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 5% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 39% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Nyland appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).